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The “New” Normal

Many (many) years ago, I took a course in population dynamics. It was really interesting (even to a rather disassociated engineering student). For example, we studied population interaction of hunters with zebras, and with predating lions (in a specific vegetation zone). Of particular interest was the study of weavers interacting with brood parasitic Diederik Cuckoos, and predating boomslang.
In all examples and cases such as these, the problem statement starts with stable populations, and entails injection of a perturbation, for example a widespread fire, or three years of severe drought etc., and tracks the effect on the animal populations. In all the studies, the result was an eventual return to a “normal” stable situation resembling the start conditions. In some cases this could occur in very short periods such as 3 to 5 years, in other events 20 or 30 years. In own right these were more than merely mathematical exercises. It was obvious that the resulting ability of nature to recover was always predicated upon the principle that the external environment was a “constant” over the long term (returning to the “norm” of rainfall, temperature, and the resulting typical vegetation).
But now things are different. The earth is rapidly getting hotter. It will not return to the “traditional” norm of the past 200 years within our lifetimes. The immediate effect on our historically observed natural environment is not clear. Even more concerning is that it will certainly not stabilise to the historic stable norm. We actually have no idea of what the “new normal” will be.
Add to this the proliferation of lunatics deliberately destroying specific species (pangolins and rhinoceros immediately come to mind), and it becomes difficult to envisage what the planet may look like for our grandchildren. Never has there been a period where exercising of common sense is more important than right now.



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